Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that polarised the country and triggered chaos, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an highly divided society where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is imminent, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of serious debate, said McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or activists seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unity or the current situation. Each authors two articles that strive for neutrality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and social figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass national emblems, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens say they prefer unity but reject increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a incompetent government minister who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified arguments, he stated. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and the other side will eventually not succeed but all factions has got valuable insights to gain from the opposing positions."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
