Seven years ago, it took just a short phrase to ignite a Labour conference and to show the party was falling out of love with its then leader. Although not exactly soaring oratory, the words were greeted with wild cheering as most of the hall stood for spontaneous acclamation.
When the noise subsided, Keir Starmer, stood at the podium, blinking in surprise. He was unaccustomed to his addresses producing such a reaction. His statement was simply: "We are not excluding staying in the EU". Context, however, is key.
During that deeply polarized period of 2018, straying from the prepared script in this way was always going to be seen as issuing a challenge to Jeremy Corbyn, who sought to prioritize Brexit voters in working-class seats above the Europhile sentiments of his party. With that single address, this grey-suited opposition Brexit spokesman underwent a transformation – if only for a while – into a risk-taker who would stand up for most Labour MPs, members and voters against a leader he later succeeded.
The Shift in Position & Closed Debates
Since then, the landscape has shifted, not least to Starmer himself. An early move upon assuming leadership from Corbyn in 2020 was to declare the EU question had been settled by the 2019 general election. During the most recent campaign, he repeatedly emphasised unbreakable pledge promises that ruled out re-entry into the EU, the single market or a customs union.
Similar to Corbyn, the PM's approach has focused on winning Brexit-y voters in target constituencies, even if survey data suggests a significant number have died or changed their minds.
A Lid That Rattles on the EU
However, the tables have turned and Starmer is now to be an embattled party leader. While EU relations may not be the boiling pot of British politics, a lid which was firmly shut since Brexit is starting to loosen again.
Both Starmer and Rachel Reeves have intensified their language regarding the damage caused by Brexit has inflicted on the UK’s economy. This serves as an effective tool to criticize the Reform UK leader, who now rarely mentions his flagship policy was once his singular purpose and is still his sole political accomplishment.
And yet, the extent of the economic harm, reportedly has resulted in an economy that is significantly diminished than if it were still in the EU, towers over the minor adjustments so far offered by ministers. The PM's much-touted re-set deal negotiated with the EU last summer provides gains measured in low decimal points.
Internal Pressure and Ambitious Proposals
Rachel Reeves is one of those trying to overcome entrenched Home Office resistance to a broader scheme designed to boost growth youth mobility scheme by which young people can move between Britain and Europe to study or work.
David Lammy has pondered publicly regarding the “self-evident” benefits of being in an EU customs pact, while a dozen Labour MPs, such as the head of the Treasury select committee, last week supported a Liberal Democrat motion on joining one.
Although Nick Thomas-Symonds, the minister in charge of EU policy, who is now attending all cabinet sessions, maintains the red lines are still in place, there exist avenues to work around them. One idea involves announce the start of talks immediately on a much bolder deal, to be featured in the next manifesto, to be enacted only after Labour won a fresh mandate.
Starmer's Fundamental Doubts
Yet, Starmer has most recently pouring cold water on the idea cautioning that a return to a European customs area would “unravel” the trade pacts with America, which he views as signature achievements of his government.
It is understood that the PM’s scepticism run even deeper, stemming from several key concerns.
- Firstly, he thinks any customs union agreement is now significantly more difficult as ministers are actively diverging from EU regulations in numerous sectors, including the environment.
- Second, the prohibitive cost set for the UK to join a European defense initiative and the subsequent collapse in talks has convinced British officials that former EU partners are less interested in cutting special deals with Britain and are more focused on proving that Brexit does not work.
- Thirdly, America's latest security doctrine, praised by the Kremlin, is seen by some influential figures in Number 10 as grounds for Britain to maintain distance from Europe.
An Alarming Strategy and Geopolitical Calculations
This strange and concerning document asserts Europe is threatened by cultural extinction because of immigration. It contains only one reference of the UK, found on a suggestion that the US government will intervene in our politics to foster the growth of “patriotic” parties.
However, instead of deciding that this renders America an undependable ally, ministers reportedly fear that deeper EU integration would destabilise geopolitics further by endangering fragile US military support for Ukraine, Nato and much more besides.
Leadership Speculation & The Ghost of 2018
This situation brings us back to the conference of 2018. Starmer has always said that address was not a pitch for the leadership but simply an effort to keep open the “option” of staying in the EU in a future vote. In fact, back then, he still supported a “bespoke customs union deal” similar to the one he currently seems to reject.
Observers within Downing Street note that the Health Secretary, widely considered would stand for the leadership, is among a clutch of cabinet ministers letting it be known they want to go further regarding the EU.
Aides to Angela Rayner, another likely contender in a contest to replace Starmer, insist she refuses to comment on her stance on a customs union because it would only “fuel unnecessary gossip”.
The Obvious Risk & A Wise Memory
The risk is clear. Should the PM reject more meaningful steps towards a close relationship, he cedes ground to claim the territory where the overwhelming majority of the party's supporters are to be found.
It would be wise for Starmer to recall the impact that a short phrase had for him in 2018. Potential pathways for a major proposal on EU relations which the PM should not “rule out”; he should prise them open personally, before someone else makes them his – or her – own.
