Just 60 days in the past when the Villa attacker found himself on the Stadium of Light pitch, seeming perplexed while his coach scolded him over missing a penetrating pass. At that point, as the club failed to win in six, it wasn't clear if his performances were a sign or a cause of Villa's broader struggles.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
In the latest match, however, the touchline reaction was entirely decidedly more positive. When the in-form star swept in his second strike to reinstate Villa's lead, Emery tore off his jacket, opened his arms and bellowed. The Birmingham club were on their way to a 10th successive win and having failed to win their opening six games, now sit just three points behind table-toppers Arsenal.
Are They Legitimate Challengers?
That’s a particularly tough proposition to resolve. History, a general sense of this institution, argues against it. Additionally, they've rarely been completely commanding this season, even as the positive results have accumulated.
As per the data, in only two games have Villa had an xG notably superior than their opponents. For a club that have just won 10 in a row, Villa appear strangely fragile – but currently the tight outcomes are falling their way.
The Winning Formula
Their recent policy looks like to engage in a shootout with rivals before hoping their star man to rescue them with a couple of clinical strikes. This occurred away to Leeds, it transpired at West Ham, and again against Manchester United.
His opener stemmed from a superb shot, arced precisely inside the post from a wide position. For his second proved to be a slightly less clean iteration of the opener as he pounced on a setup by his strike partner.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
Can It Last?
Common sense dictates no. Against United, Manchester United had more efforts and more efforts on goal. They have triumphed in eight consecutive games by a single goal. The defence has been breached in all except one of those fixtures.
Regression to the mean may well be the greatest opponent Villa have to face in the near future. Rogers, almost certainly, cannot maintain drilling the ball past despairing goalkeepers forever.
Potential for Growth
Could it be a different scenario in which, instead of outcomes regressing to match displays, performances begin to trend towards results. Important figures could still return to peak condition.
- The main striker might resume adding to his goal tally.
- The attacking talent might become the performer he showed at Borussia Dortmund.
- The injured centre-backs are set to return from injury, strengthening a periodically leaky backline.
This could contain the possibility of a genuine bid, however, it is improbable cannot keep relying on one man.
Enjoying the Ride
But then, this is a surprise. It seemed improbable Villa would be third at Christmas. And certainly two months ago, few could imagine the midfielder now would be at the forefront of a hunt for the title while looking like a crucial player for the national team.
This remarkable period should be enjoyed exactly since it appears so improbable. As the match-winner stood in front of the North End when the game ended conducting the cheers, he seemed to be relishing every moment. A feeling he has rightly earned. These spells are uncommon in the sport and must be appreciated.
